Afghanistan: After US is gone!
By: Tarique Khan Javed
President, Overseas Pakistani Investors Forum.
___________________ Dated: 26 Nov 2009

The economic circumstances of USA do not permit it to maintain the expensive role of Global Police. It needs to start cutting cost and disengagement from Iraq and Afghanistan is the obvious choice. Currently the talk is about leaving Afghanistan by 2017; however I predict they will leave by 2012.  

Demise of USA as dominant Economic power:
USA has accumulated total debt of USD 12 trillion against GDP of USD 14 trillion. A debt of additional USD 2 trillion was taken up during the last 2 years. Its daily trade deficit of nearly USD 2 billion is unsustainable. Even after spending USD 1.5 trillion fresh  borrowed   funds to stimulate its economy things are not moving and unemployment has touched 10% mark. There is need for additional about USD 1.5 trillion of injection to cover the real estate losses alone.

World is actively tooking for an alternative currency to trade and invest other than USD. Investors in USD have lost lot of money since 1985 when I USD was equal to 240 Yen while now the rate is less than 88. Loss of 2/3 value is enough to convince the World that the USD can not be relied upon as reliable currency and destination of investment. This has dire consequences for USA as a military power as its hitherto privilege of raising as much funds it wants just by printing USD or issuing Bonds is compromised. As creating an effective alternative to USD as global trading currency is difficult, Chinese, Russians and Arabs are working on creating strong Regional currencies to cater to their regional needs. These moves are likely to reduce the demand of USD as international trading currency gradually.  Meanwhile, all are buying Gold, as an interim safe heaven.

Challenges and positive US response:
A democratic government can not ignore these ugly figures and must respond by swallowing its pride and admitting that it can not carry the burden of Policing the World, any longer. Saving failing Banks, Insurance Co’s, Auto industry is a priority over the remote risk of another 9/11 type attack coming from Afghanistan. It will probably go for a surge in Afghanistan and than like Iraq start withdrawing. In case of Iraq it is relying on newly built Army to take control. In the case of Afghanistan the current army is mainly comprise of Northern Alliance forces. They will never be able to dare to come and control the vast Pakhtoon belt in East and South of the country given the history of the country. Therefore Pakistani Army remains the only choice for the West to hand over the Pakhtoon belt after segregating it from rest of Afghanistan and merging it with Pakistan. Rest of Afghanistan will be manageable by the Northern Forces Army and therefore peace and prosperity will return in the Region. Only 700,000 strong Pakistan Army can ensure that Al Qaeda and Taliban are wiped out of the area and never return.

Post US- Afghanistan
Leaders like Imran Khan of PTI, Munawar Hasan of JI and Fazlur Rehman of JUI think that all that is wrong in the Region is due to American presence. To them once US leave peace and harmony will prevail and all will be happy. However they forget what was happening in the Region before 9/11 and they do not offer any solution to the problems that will rise again.

The question that needs to be answered before being happy about the prospects of USA finally leaving is what will happen after the Western forces leave? Will Afghanistan return to long drawn civil war, as happened between 1988 and 2004, after Soviets left in haste? Or with our help Taliban will rule again all over Afghanistan? Will they establish the same coercive regime denying rights of women and minorities or they will be more liberal this time?

The power enjoyed by Northern Alliance during the last 8 years and their successful experience of denying real power to Pashtuns has consolidated their position. They are not likely to give up the privileges and once again come under Pashtuns hegemony. They will resist very strongly any attempt to reimpose Taliban type regime or any other regime dominated by Pashtuns. Therefore there is high probability the Civil War of 1988 and 1994 period may ensue in the post western period.

Pakistan in the past managed to capture and rule all over Afghanistan during period 1995 and 2001 in the guise of Taliban. It easily captured the country as there was no matching power to appose or arrest its advance. The professional backed force proved too much for the Northern Forces at that time.

This is true today as well, once the Western forces are gone. To fill the gap some organized force will have to step in and there is no better choice than Pakistani Army. Pakistan Army enjoys the trust of Western forces more than any other force in the Region. They have been close allies since independence and share common technology and thinking process.   Therefore the Britishers left the FATA, NWFP and Baluchistan in the hands of Pakistan as their successors, USA will prefer to leave Eastern and Southern Afghanistan in the hands of Pakistan. Pakistan will ensure that Iranian, Russian and Indian influences do not dominate the whole of Afghanistan. 

An expanded Pakhtonkhawa:
One solution to the problem which Pakistan should support is the permanent separation of all Pashtun areas in Afghanistan and its amalgamation in Pakistan. This will mean Jalalabad, Khandahar, Helmond, Farah and region in the South East below Heart, up to the Turkmenistan border will become part of Pakistan. The rest of the non Pashtun area may continue as Afghanistan.

This will unite the entire Pashtun nation in one place and create a great province of Pakhtonkhawa, which may also include the Northern Baluchistan from Quetta, Harnai and Duke onwards. Such a large province may be divided into upper and lower Pakhtonkhawa for better administration.

Such an arrangement will ensure lasting peace and prosperity in the region. Within Pakistan Pakhtonkhawa will be an effective counter weight against current dominant Punjab.

Such a move will be in line with wishes of Great Pathan leader Sher Shah Suri who in 1545 divined that: “The Pathan future lay with Indus Valley region and not with the vague and shifting principalilities in the direction of Central Asia”.

Similar opinion and prediction was made by the last British Governor of NWFP Sir Olaf Caroe in his book called “The PATHANS”. He predicted that one day Kabul will be part of Pathan Government based in Peshawar and not the other way round, as desired by than Afghan Government”. He wrote this 1958.

The simple fact is that it Pakistan which the food basket of the region and the only developed state with industry, nuclear power and 7th biggest Army in the World. Why should Pakhtoon not align themselves with such a state in which bulk of their population already live and prosper. What better name of country for Pakhtoon which starts with first three letters of their own name. What better country for them where they have distinguish in all fields and provided Rulers like Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan, Ghulam Ishaq Khan and players like Jahangir Khan, Imran Khan and Shahid Afridi. No Pakhtoon has ever felt neglected or discriminated in Pakistan. They work and trade all over the Country and are well represented in the Army to the extent of 23% which guarantees that no injustice is done to them.     

  
Major role of Pakhtoon in Regional trade:
Such a reshaped Pakistan will get linked to Europe and than become a major transit trade point between South Asia and Europe. The main beneficiary of this massively enlarged trade will be Pakhtuns. This will usher an era of prosperity along the route and large number of currently unemployed Pashtuns will find jobs in Hotels, dinning halls, Tea shops, General stores, Petrol pumps along the route. While the transport Co’s will employ many more workers as their business expands.

As per SAARC charter all barriers to trade between SAARC will come down by 2013. When this materializes; it will open door for such peace and prosperity in the region, as has not been known since the start of colonial period in 1750s. The colonial period followed by divisions has pitched the countries in the region against each other. The massive population of this huge trading block from Afghanistan to Burma have been kept poor by colonial exploitation and bickering after independence. Time has come when people and goods within the region once again flows unhindered and work to promote good will and eliminate terrible poverty. This will lead to the emergence of the Region as the most dominant economic power of the world, a position it held upto 1750s when colonial powers subdued it to the position of baggers of the world.