Cost of Pakistan’s flawed  Afghan policy
By: Tarique Khan Javed
President, Overseas Pakistani Investors Forum.

Poor nation with expensive policies:
Our flawed Afghan policy has cost us at-least USD 60 billion over 30 years, while Iran was able to avoid it; although it shared similar borders and tribal connections. As we struggle to survive on IMF dole outs and none of our so called Muslim and non Muslim friend are ready to give us even One million dollar. The question as to why we indulged in such reckless policy becomes pertinent. It is time to take account as to why we adopt expensive policies which might be OK for a rich and powerful country but not for a country in our situation; were we need to save each dollar to feed our starving millions, to educate our most illiterate people and provide basic heath-care for malnourished and sick people.

American bonanza-time to avenge Vietnam:
When at the invitation of progressive forces, USSR invaded Afghanistan in 1978 to help and consolidate their rule. The new Rulers challenged age old traditions and redistributed land. Which created strong resentment among Landlords who were mostly from the Pakhtoon Ruling elite.

USA found an excellent opportunity to avenge its defeat and humiliation in Vietnam. In Pakistan, Zia found a cause of crusading against evil Godless communists and get close to USA and stay in power by allying himself with Islamist forces. Thus a massive offensive was launched from Pakistan, funded by USA and manned and executed by Pakistan.

If Bhutto had continued in power, Pakistan’s response could have been very different. He would have welcomed the changes brought about to empower common man, bring economic justice and break old traditions which were particularly cruel for woman. He would have treated it as an offshoot and continuation of the People’s Revolution he brought in 1971.

The 10 years war from 1978 to 88 destroyed Afghanistan completely and forced 3 million Afghans to seek shelter in Pakistan. The massive amount of US arms moving from Karachi to Afghan borders provided ample opportunities for pilfering  and thus Pakistan became awashed in illegal sophisticated weapons. To fund the so called Jihad funds were raised by selling massive quantity of drugs to the West. With huge number of Afghan refugee all over Pakistan, ample arms and drugs, Pakistani society turned a new bloody chapter which after 30 years, roles on.

The cost of feeding 3 million Afghans for 30 years can not be less than USD 30 billion.

Afghanistan divided for ever:
USSR dismembered and economically in ruin having suffered heavy military defeats and losses withdrew in 1988. However with their positive moves like Land and Educations reforms they succeeded in dividing the Afghan society decisively. Consequently all moves by previous Ruling elite to regain power and get back their
lost land were defeated by the combined forces of previously deprived tribes like Hazara, Uzbuk, Tajik, who formed the Northern Alliance.

Between 1988 and 1994, Kabul was smashed to ruins yet no one was able get complete control of the capital and the nation. Pro Pakistani forces like that of Hikmatyar even with Pakistani support failed to defeat Ahmed Shah Masood the Tajik Lion of Pangsher valley, while Uzbuk leader Dostum kept firm control of Mazer –e-Sharif and other Uzbuk areas and Ahmed Khan did not yield Herat.

Trade route blocked for long enough:
World community waited patiently from 1978 to 1994 for a resolution of the situation. Many meeting between warring parties who all professed to be good Muslims in Makkah and Madina failed to resolve the differences and fighting use to resume soon after return of the Leaders. Written agreements and pledges on Quran did not end the war which was essentially for land and economic interest.

Oil companies interested in huge Oil and Gas finds in Ex Soviet Union states were keen to use the Afghan-Pakistan route to bring them to the Indian Ocean ports like Karachi or Gawader.

It is reported that in 1995, Unicol an American Oil Company was taking a fleet of 1,000 trucks from Chaman to Turkmenistan via Heart, under scout of a Pakistani Colonel Imam, when it was blocked by Orakzia tribe near Herat demanded a huge sum for passage. Instead of paying the Colonel decided to fight his way out using local Madersa students, as front. The convey reached safely and Taliban movement was born.

Taliban as expected did restore law and order and for the first time after a long interval one could travel safely to Herat and beyond. Thus the objective of creating Taliban was realized.

Taliban brought law and order at the cost of civil liberty:
With blessing form USA, Saudi Arabia and UAE Taliban forces backed by Pakistani army was able to capture gradually whole of Afghanistan. They brought peace and order but their insistence on introduction of strict Shariah laws was highly resented in the Country as well as outside. People of the World were shocked to see their treatment of women who were shut up in their houses and man forced to keep beard and observe 5 time prayers, whether they liked it or not. All kind of entertainment including taped music was discouraged and banned. This enraged the Civil Society all over the World and their indignation reached its peak when Taliban bombed and smashed the huge Buddha statues in Bamyan.

Glory for Al Qaeda and end of Taliban Rule:
With marriage alliances Osama Bin Laden became very close to Mullah Umar who emerged as a Supreme Leader of Taliban. Emboldened; Kenyan and Tanzanian attacks in 1998 and SS Cole attack in Yemen, were reportedly planned and executed by Al Qaeda from Afghanistan.  However when they, reportedly, struck USA on 11 September 2001, alliances turned upside down. USA became the sworn enemy of Al Qaeda and Taliban after they refused to hand over Osama bin Laden.

In October 2001 USA hit Afghanistan with a massive air attack and with the help of friendly tribes, who were paid millions of dollars, very easily eliminated Taliban and
captured Afghanistan.   

Northern Alliance Rules and Pakhtoon fight on:
NATO and US forces restored the lost civil liberties to the joy of non Pakhtoon tribes and law and order improved in their Areas. The tribes allied in Northern
Alliance got a lions share in the Government with all important Ministries with them and President Hamid Karzia, became a symbolic sole representative of

Pakhtoon tribe. This arrangement of power sharing is opposite of power sharing arrangements in Afghanistan for last 1000 years. During which Mohammadzai Pakhtoon tribe of Kandahar completely dominated. Tribes like Hazara (Shia) were treated like animals and were given voting rights only in 1961. This sea change is not being digested by Pakhtoons and they fight on. Therefore most of the insurgencies is in Pakhtoon dominated area from Jalalabad in the Northeast to Helmand and Farah provinces in the South and from Kandahar  in the East to Herat in the West. That means the entire Southern and Lower Eastern Afghanistan, which borders Pakistan.

Thus areas were insurgency goes on  have two things in common. They are all Pakhtoon dominated Areas and they border Pakistan. Therefore US and NATO allegation against Pakistan, that we are helping the insurgents tend to stick.

Pakistan’s constrain and dilemma:
Withdrawal of troops from FATA in 1947 and closing of cantonments and depending fully on tribes to protect our western border has put Pakistan in a difficult situation. To expect unorganized Tribes to protect an extended international border and also keep internal peace and law and order was not a wise decision. The so called free area or “elaqa ghair” became a heaven for miscreants of the world. Nowhere in the World exists such areas in the modern times.   First as a center of arm production and sale, then as the drug capital of the World followed by World Head Quarter of Al Qaeda and other wanted elements from all over the World, brought untold misery on Pakistan leading to 9/11. Despite Tora Bora and capture of Afghanistan by NATO and USA, all kind of criminal activities continued in FATA. Following attacks in 2004, on American interests in Saudi Arabia, in which terrorist recently trained in FATA were caught and details of their training camps in FATA became available, Pakistani troops had to enter FATA, for the first time since 1947. Army is hotly contested and entire battalions are kidnapped and made hostages. Therefore honestly we can not claim that we are in control of the Area. If Al Qaeda and Taliban operatives are training and operating from the Area who is there to stop them. We are helpless in our own country.  We do not know how long it will take to get full control of the Area when we can with confidence deny intrusions from our side of the border and even ask US to stop “Drone” attacks.

Bulk of three million Afghans entered Pakistan through FATA and very few from Baluchistan. This was because in Baluchistan Government was in full control in borders like Chaman. No one could force an entry. Afghans once in Pakistan were also free to travel to any place and bulk of them landed in Karachi.

Iranian model worth adopting:
Iran refused to let Afghan refugee beyond 10 km of its border. They made arrangement for temporary accommodation and provided them all facilities. Very few Afghanis managed to get to any major Iranian city. Because the lives in these camps were very difficult Refugee availed the first UN offer for repatriation and bulk of them returned home.

Like Pakistan, Iran also had political compulsions in accommodating Afghan refugees. The sizeable Shia community of Hazara could not be ignored by the Islamic Republic. Yet as Iran was in full control of its borders it could do what it liked and was not helpless like Pakistan.

Time to act for Pakistan and take control:
1. As urged by Afghanistan and World community Pakistan must act and take full control of FATA by flushing out miscreants and terrorists. In this exercise all help from USA and NATO forces should be welcome as it seems Pakistani alone is not capable of doing it despite  tall claims. Close intelligence sharing using advanced technologies with West,

should be welcomed and not rejected. We must accept that we are out numbered and out gunned in FATA.

USA had openly said recently that they expect the next attack on them from FATA. This is serious warning for Pakistan and must not taken lightly. If a repeat of 9/11 happens Ramsfield’s threat to send us back in stone age may be carried out. Thus we must act in haste and not lose time.

2. Time has come that we must tell our Afghan brothers that they have over extended our hospitality by staying for 30 years and now must return home. Situation in Afghanistan except in Pakhtoon area is quite normal and development activity funded by Western aid is going on thus providing better employment opportunities. To force the issue all Afghans should be rounded up and taken to a holding camp near the border. For this the track between Chaman Town and formidable Kojak pass is an ideal location. Ample financial incentive and assistance by International donor agencies should be given these unfortunate people so that they may easily restart their lives in Afghanistan.