Durand line:
need to be redrawn on ethnic lines
By: Tarique Khan Javed
President, Overseas Pakistani Investors Forum.
                           Dated 08 Dec 2009

Pakistan at a cross road:
Pakistan has reached a cross road. Some think that it will not survive, as it is and will be cut to size which will mean only the plains of Sindh and Punjab will form Pakistan; while rest will break away. There are others like me, who think a historical opportunity for Pakistan to expand west wards has arrived, to become a significant power of the world.

An opportunity for Pakistan:
The departure of Western forces from Afghanistan will compel Pakistan to move westward and take over all Pakhtun belt in Afghanistan comprising Kabul, Jalalabad, Khandahar, Helmond and Farah provinces upto the Turkmenistan border. This will reduce Afghanistan, to the areas now occupied by Northern Alliance forces comprising areas inhibited by Hazaras, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Turkmen etc. It will also cut its land connection with Iran.

Historically, Iran and India have always divided Afghanistan between them equally. While Kabul, Khandahar, Farah was always with the Mughal or earlier Muslim Rulers, many of them Pakhtuns, rest of Afghanistan was under the influence of Iran. In areas dominated by Iran Persian language and culture held sway while the rest retained its Pashto language and traditions. Most Pakhtun, who are dire hard Sunnis, always treated Iranians as decadent people, following a loose version of Islam. Thus they found co-habitation with them impossible. On the other hand the Sunni Muslim Rulers of India were much more acceptable to them as they were co followers of their faith and always gave a lion share of the government to Pakhtuns, even if the top leadership was with Mughal.
 
First and last Afghan Kingdom:
After the break up of Mughal and Sufavids Empires. On the Indian side arose the Sikhs and on the Iranian side Durranis. Thus for the first time in 2000 year recorded history an independent Afghanistan under Durranis arose in 1747 and lasted  till 1957 or 210 years  as Kingship and later as a Republic for  22 years till it was taken over by the Soviets in 1979. The Sikh rule started around 1790 lasted for only 156 years till it was ended by British rule in 1846.

Since 1988 when the Soviets left, Afghanistan is trying to find a basis of continuing as a nation. The tragic fact is that the nation is overwhelmingly dominated by Pakhtun who not only comprise 50% of the population but are also the only Martial race of the nation. They always dominated and ruled without giving any significant share to lesser tribes like Hazaras, Tajiks, Uzbeks, whom they considered inferior not only because they were mostly Shias but also because they considered them less manly and thus not deserving respect.

Between 1989 and 1995 a civil war of high intensity continued in Afghanistan during with Pakhtun leaders like Hikmatyar tried their best, in the name of Islam, to capture Kabul and rule all over Afghanistan but Tajik leaders like Ahmed Shah Masood and Uzbek leaders like Rashid Dustam  resisted fearsly and Kabul was completely destroyed. Hikmatyar was backed by Pakistan yet he failed. Muslim brotherhood was unable to over come the tribal, religious and linguistic differences.

Rise of Taliban:
Fed up of the unending civil war, Pakistan tried to open the route from Chaman to Turkmenistan by taking a large convey through in 1994. When resisted by Orakzai tribe near Herat, local Talibs (Madarsa students) were hired and armed to help open the route rather pay the heavy sum demanded by the tribesmen. With Pak army backing these untrained volunteers succeeded. The success in the operation led to creation of Taliban. Taliban with their firm discipline, simple message of restoration of law and order, implementation of Shariah laws and support of Pakistan Army succeeded in ending the resistance of Northern Alliance. They captured and ruled over the whole of Afghanistan from 1995 till Nov 2001. When USA forced them out of power following 9/11 and established a government mainly headed by Northern Alliance. Although, Hamid Karzai has been kept as a figure Head to appease the Pakhtun population. Pakhtun reject this kind of power sharing and have kept on their resistance in the name of Taliban, to the extent that Western forces are now exhausted and want to leave in three years.

Division of Afghanistan on ethnic lines:
In order to avoid what happened after Soviet withdrawal it is pertinent that Afghanistan be divided between Pakhtun and rest of the tribes. So that Pakhtun take the East and South of the Country while rest goes to others.

If this is not done an unending civil war in Post West Afghanistan is inevitable. It will be very bloody and will destabilize the whole Region. Now the Northern Alliance (NA) is much stronger than they were in 1994 and will resist very strongly Pakhtun attempts to once again dominate them. Pakhtun based on history will fight to take control of all of Afghanistan and impose their moral system and power sharing on previous basis. This time around the NA will be actively and openly supported by India, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and above all Iran. While Pakhtun may bank on only covert support of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States like UAE. West will probably remain neutral or support both parties equally. Thus this is a recipe for an extended conflict in which none of the parties can hope to
win and dominate.

UN must act to avoid disaster:
To avoid these dire consequences it is pertinent that the World should sit together under the UN and decide to extend the current Durand Line west ward to incorporate all Pakhtun area into Pakistan. The line drawn on ethnic line is likely to yield lasting peace. The current line drawn on scientific lines as per the Britishers, take into consideration only physical features and mostly pass over mountain ranges without regard to composition of population on both sides of the line. This has divided the Pakhtun in two and this is the single most important cause of unrest in the Region. This historical anomaly needs to be fixed on urgent basis as part of preparation of departure of Western forces from the Region. This problem if not fixed can lead to the Third World War.