Predicting the outcome of current conflict
By: Tarique Khan Javed
President, Overseas Pakistani Investors Forum.
                           Dated 23 Dec 2009

A review of history of past conflicts and wars in Pakistan clearly indicate that no terrorist group or insurgents can win over a professional Army. The current conflict in FATA and mild insurgency in Baluchistan will surely lead to complete victory by the Army. People should not worry too much and wait for the outcome within few months.

13 battles leading to creation of Pakistan:
During the last 167 years there were 13 major battles between the Britishers and local forces. All of them were won by Britishers and as a result of these battles the current shape of Pakistan came into being.

Two battle in Sindh-Meanee  and Duppa (1843) against the Talpurs led to annexation of Sindh. Five battles against Sikhs resulted in the annexation of Punjab which included Peshawar and other low lands of NWFP. The five battles were: Kineyree, Siege of  Multan, Ramunggar  in 1848, Chillianwalla and Gujrat in 1949.  

No major battle was fought in Baluchistan and it was bought under British rule on the basis of Mustung treaty of 1876 with Khan of Kalat and the Gandamak treaty of 1879 with Amir of Afghanistan. 

Gilgit was annexed after the battle of Nilt and Thol in 1891 and Chitral after the siege in 1895. The most difficult area to control was that of Malakand and Swat for which the Britishers fought 3 battles. The Ambeyla Compaign (1863), sieges of Malakand and Chakdara (1897) resulted in lot of causulties on both sides.

However in the end Britishers managed to establish their rule on the formidable Yousufzai country which had remained elusive from former conqurers like Babar and even Durranis. The general uprising in 1897 also did not break the hold of the Britishers on NWFP and some tribal areas.

A study of these battles brings forward lot of stories of individual and group’s bravery but in the end it meant      nothing, as far as the net result is concerned.

As far as the FATA is concerned the Britishers were able to establish 4 cantonments in Waziristan namely Tank, Wana, Jandola and Ramzak which provided a hold on the 60% area of FATA. A general annexation was not done mainly due to financial consideration. The area was seen as a financial burden given its low productivity.

A major blunder of Pakistan:
Pakistan committed a major blunder in agreeing to close the 4 cantonments of Waziristan after independence. Britishers warned of grave consequences of this short sighted decisions and their prediction came to pass as FATA emerged as the epic centre of world terrorism and crime.

After 9/11 USA resolved to take revenge from Pakistan by bombing it to medieval era, for FATA was part of Pakistan. Pakistan managed to avoid the terrible fate by bowing down on both knees before USA and promising to help her take revenge from Al Qaeda and its allies in FATA.

However in the past Pakistan used Taliban to capture Afghanistan indirectly. Since the creation of Pakistan, Afghanistan has been lying claim on Pakhtoon inhabited Pakistan territories. Pakistan seized the chance to instead capture entire Afghanistan, with relative ease after the extended civil war between 1988 and 1994, following withdrawal of Soviet forces. That is why when Pakistan was asked to completely destroy them it was in double minds.

Pakistan’s dual policy on Taliban:
While Pakistan needs Taliban for future capture of Afghanistan it is being compelled by USA to eliminate them. That is why no real action was taken against them although action against Al Qaeda was taken. Benazir knew of this duplicity in Pakistan’s action and promised to correct it if given a chance to rule. That is why she was probably eliminated by Taliban on her return. Her party has kept the promise and initiated real action against the Taliban strongholds in FATA.

Current unfounded anxiety:
Despite Rah e Najat operation in FATA suicide bombing have continued creating anxiety in people’s mind that the Taliban may prevail over the Army. However history does not support such an outcome. No matter how daring and heroic their individual and group actions may look like for the time being Taliban will be cornered soon and all of FATA taken over for good. This will complete the historic march westwards started by the Britishers in 1843 when they annexed Sindh.

While expansion of Pakistan into FATA is very welcome news and will expand Pakistan’s market and help control smuggling which has been detrimental for local business. This will bring general peace and reduction in all kinds of crime as the hideout of criminals will be eliminated. Nevertheless Army will mourn loss of a strategic allay needed for influence in Afghanistan.

Potential massive investment in FATA:
With the incorporation of FATA into Pakistan huge amount of investment is likely to flow in the area from local and overseas Pakistan to help build missing infrastructure. FATA based overseas Pakistanis are sitting on investments of upto USD 100 billion which are currently kept aboard. They have hitherto not invested in the area due to absence of legal infra structure like Courts and Land Registry as available in settled urban areas. With such investment lots of jobs are likely to be created which will eliminate century old poverty in the area. Western Governments are also willing to provide generous help in for the uplift of the region. They now realise that poverty is the root cause of terrorism in the area.  Few billion dollars investment in infra structure from them can be easily expected.

Next objective of Pakistan:
Once FATA is completely annexed into Pakistan the next goal of Pakistan should be the capture and annexation of remaining Pakhtoon territory in Afghanistan. The idea of capturing whole of Afghanistan with the help of Taliban may be modified to establishing direct rule over Pakhtoon areas only while leaving the non Pakhtoon area for the Northern alliance. Such a move will give us direct access to European market via Turkmenistan. Which will lead to a quantum jump in Regional trade of which Pakistan and in particular the Pakhtoon community will be main beneficiary.

A Greater Pakistan:
Pakhtoon and non Pakhtoon thus separated will bring in lasting peace in the region. The inclusion of all Pakhtoon areas into one administration will help eliminate the sense of deprivation the Pakhtoon community has felt ever since the Durand line was drawn on scientific line dividing the community in equal halves.   

All Pakhtoon living in a Greater Pakistan will become a major factor in the emergence of Pakistan, as an Economic Super Power. Pakhtoon will be very well off as part of a modern democratic state with a large agriculture and industrial base. Afghanistan will never be able to catch it even with lot of Western aid. Currently it is a Feudal State with warlords holding sway in their respective areas. The corruption is so wide spread that West is disgusted and happy to put a time table of pulling out. The last election was not endorsed by international observers.