Problems of Baluchistan-what can be done?
By: Tarique Khan Javed
President, Overseas Pakistani Investors Forum.
                           Dated 2 April 2009

The kidnapping of John Solecki of UNCHR and BLUF demand for release of 1,100 missing persons of Baluchistan including 145 females has brought the BLA led insurgency at the forefront of issues in Pakistan. Involvement of UN and international powers has forced Pakistan to concede to the demand of BLA. However it is widely feared that most of the missing persons are dead and can not be produced. This implies that John will be killed by BLA eventually and this will disgrace Pakistan and Baluchs who are honour bond to protect their guest even at the cost of their life.

During my visits to Turbat, Panjgoor, Kuzdar, Kalat, and Noshki I have seen wide spread support of people towards nationalist forces and indirectly for BLA. In Quetta the support is limited to southern part only. In Pakhtoon dominated north the support is missing as most people seem to be happy with Pakistan. During my visits to upper Quetta, Chaman, Ziarat, Loralia,Qila Saif ullah and Zhob I have found these areas most peaceful and economically well off.

Two Baluchistans:
Everyone knows that the name Baluchistan is not representative of entire administrative area. All areas north of Lower Quetta, Sibi and Kholu are in fact Pakhtoonkhawa territory. They have little common with rest of Baluchistan. They can either be part of Afghanistan as they were before the British rule or part of NWFP or a separate province. BLA has no support in the area and people there seems happy with the current arrangement. Thus the problems are only with the southern Baluchistan. To find out what is the problem we need to answer the following questions.

1. Why are Baluch nationalist so angry with Pakistan that they want to opt out of Pakistan? Can they be pacified?
2. Will they agree to give up upper Baluchistan and contend with rest or insist on keeping the upper Baluchistan under them and consider its separation unacceptable and continue their insurgency?
3. What are their economic plans for a Free Baluchistan?
4. Will that including the Iranian Baluchistan or not?
5. Who is supporting the nationalist cause?

Before we attempt to answer these questions a brief look at the history must be undertaken.

How Baluchistan was incorporated in British Empire:
British Forward policy followed during period 1866 to 1900 was responsible for adding the entire Baluchistan and all mountainous regions of N.W.F.P into Pakistan.

Prior to initiation of forward policy the British, Sikh and Mughal authority was limited to low lands only while the western mountains were” no go” area.

Apparently, exhausted by the continuous raids by western tribes, Major Robert Sandeman, then Commissioner of Dera Ghazi Khan, decided to enter the forbidden western Marri and Bugti territory, in hot pursuit of tribal raiders.

The policy was apposed by William Merewether, then Commissioner of Sindh who feared that such a policy will be very costly for Britain and spoil the cordial relationship with the Khan of Kalat. Khan of Kalat in consideration of Rupees 100,000 per annum cooperated with the British and surrendered his foreign policy. Marri and Bugti who raided weaker tribes within Khanate with impunity, besides raiding British territories from time to time, where supposed to be under Khan of Kalat, however the Khan was unable to control them.

British interaction with the tribes soon revealed internal weakness of Khanates politics with each tribal leader intriguing against the other and against the Khan of Kalat. To his surprise Sandeman found people within Khans household and Court who were ready to help him achieve his objective of getting a foot hold in the Khanate for a consideration. Thus in 1876 the Treaty of Mustung was signed which gave Queeta valley to the British, as well a permanent Resident in the Court, with authority to advice on all major issues.

A Base at Quetta in 1877 and its impact:
For the first time British cantonment was thus established at Quetta, initially with only 300 Sikh soldiers and handful of British Officers. Possession of Quetta valley proved to be immense value as it commanded a huge territory from Bolan Pass to Kojak pass, on the important trade route between India and Afghanistan.  While Baluch accepted this arrangement, as decreed by their Sardar, the independent minded Pathans of area did not accept British presence in their midst. They regularly conducted suicide attacks with swords and simple guns killing Sikh and British soldiers before being killed. Bruce mentions that such attacks happened almost every week.

The Sandemanian security arrangements:
Sandeman made arrangements with local tribes along the route to guard their part of territory which reduced the pressure on British army and this arrangement was very economical and politically expedient. The tribes happy with well paid jobs besides the agreed annual payment to tribal Sardar proved very good allies of the British. Sandeman also insisted on taking few close relatives of major tribal Chiefs as hostage to ensure compliance with the agreement. Many of these young sons and nephews become respected British officials after receiving good education in colleges in Punjab and Sindh.

Today all of Baluchistan is controlled by three to four layers of security. The initial and most visible force is the well armed Police, the second is local militia of Levis, to support these forces there exist a formidable force of some 38,000 Frontier Corp and finally there is the armed forces of Pakistan. Where regular Police is missing the local militias perform policing duty.

Sandeman’s master stroke won him support from Higher British authorities and Merewether’s concerns were found baseless. In the dyeing days of the empire, addition of such a large territory, made Sandeman stand out among builders of the British Empire.

Pathans resistance and how it was overcome:
As a result of 2nd Afghan war, in terms of the Treaty of Gandamak (1879), with defeated Afghan Ruler Yakub Khan, Afghan territories of Sibi, Pishan and Kurram were ceded to the British.

However the accepted wisdom of the time was that the ease at which British influence was established in Baluch area due to their obedience to their Sardar may not be possible in the Pathan areas.

Sandeman and Bruce therefore advanced in these areas with lot of caution and patients. Kakar, Shinwani, Tareens, Orakzia tribes were known for their fighting skills and courage. The most formidable foe of the British however was Sardar Shahjahan of Zhob, who was said to have super natural powers. He claimed to be the rightful Ruler of the Pathan region based on a decree of Amir of Afghanistan.

Sandeman with an overwhelming force first took Lora lai and then moved on Kila Saif Ullah and Zhob. Apart from small encounters no fighting of significance took place and one by one local Chiefs surrendered and offered their close relatives as hostages. When Shahjahan’s fort at Zhob was blown up in front of leading Sardars; they were convinced of military superiority of the British, who already had support of the Baluch. The Pathans agreed to remain peaceful under British rule and till today they have remained so.

Sandeman along with his loyal and able assistant Robert Bruce gradually expanded his authority using military force, diplomacy and above all money.  He extended proper British rule all over present Northern Baluchistan including Zhob, Sibi, Pishan, Chaman, Qila Abdulla, Gulistan, Bustan and Muslim Bagh.

The Pathans of Northern Baluchistan soon released the benefits of British rule and accepted their rule in their best interest and decided to take economic advantage of a peaceful and orderly country rather than resist and linger poverty and misery. The appeal of people like Shahjahan who advocated rebellion in the name of Islam with a view to continue the indirect rule by Amir of Afghanistan, was lost compared to technologically advanced British system. Which soon provided secure and busy trade routes like Bolan, Kojak and Gomal Pass, better Roads, Railways, Telephone and Telegraph, hospitals and school and above all well paid and secure government jobs? Practical minded Pathans chose British and later Pakistan rule over that of a medieval Afghan Rulers, who in foreseeable future could not deliver these benefits.
     
Role of Baluch  Sardars:
During the British Rule the Sardars of Baluchistan proved to be valuable allies and they helped them prevail over the Pathans. Baluch people silently followed their Sardars as per their custom and tradition. Their area remained very peaceful all this time. The Sardars received their fixed allowances and quota in jobs.

At the time of departure of Britishers; the Khan of Kalat expected them to let him be independent of Pakistan. However Britishers keeping in view their geo strategic interests incorporated the Khan of Kalat territories with Pakistan-a major western military and political ally of the West. Pakistan inherited the British territories as its rightful heir. The rights and obligation under treaty and agreements with the Britishers became applicable to Pakistan.

In 1958 Khan of Kalat declared independence but this was crushed by 40,000 Pakistani troops who surrounded Kalat. Only few people came out to resist. With 5-6 casualties and about a dozen arrests the uprising was over. The uprising was ill planned and timed. However the uprising gave excuse to Ayub Khan to take over citing grave challenge to national unity.

There was uprising again in 1963-69 period and in 1974-9 period lead by different Sardars. They were crushed by the strong security forces. The final and current uprising began in 2004 led by Nawab Akbar Bugti and Khair Bux Marri. Like the previous uprisings this will also be crushed by the armed forces easily. Major Leaders like Akbar Bugti are already dead and large number have gone missing and are presumed dead.

It is pertinent to note that while Baluch Sardars remained loyal to the Britishers they refused to give the same loyalty to Pakistan. Why was it? Was it because they felt that Pakistan was a weak state and it would be easy to shrug off its rule which was not the case with British rulers.  However after seven insurgencies they should realize it by now that beating one of the worlds largest, professional and also ruthless army is not a joke. They should also realize that this army has full backing of Western World, who have defined BLA as a terrorist organization. Therefore even if they have Indian support they have no chance of winning. But in the process more and more young Baluchs are loosing their lives. Each uprising has seen an increase in casualty. It is time to negotiate a fair deal with the new democratic government headed by a Baluch Sardar settled in Sindh.

Impact of Gawadar Port and connecting roads:
During Musharraf’s rule the decision to develop Gawadar as a deep sea port and a tax free Zone prompted huge investment in roads and other infra structure. The massive influx of people from other provinces raised concern among the people of being colonized and marginalized as the demographic structure under goes a major shift in favour of non Baluch thus making Baluchs a minority in their own province. As the 700 KM coastal highway was completed and Gawadar port took shape with the help of Chinese money, Baluch resistance rose.

The Port in order to be viable needed connection directly with upper part of the country as goods passing through Karachi made no economic sense. This prompted a project to build a road from Gawadar to Turbat, Panjgoor, Basima,Kuzdar,Rotadaro, and Shikarpur. This international standard road passing through major Baluch population areas would have reduce travel time a great deal and enhanced communication between isolated Baluch population.

The other link which may be considered later on is going directly north from Khuzdar to Gondawa, Nuttal, Dera Bugti, Ragni and finally Dera Ghazi Khan. Yet another route could be Gondawa to Lahri, Muwand, Kohlu, Ragni and finally DGK. The last route would be the shortest and therefore most desirable. It will be considered once Marri and Bugti tribes are either convinced or crushed.

Normally these would be considered most welcome developments. However it would also have entailed a huge traffic of trucks and buses passing though this territories having long term impact of the local population. This alarmed the nationalist and they started to kill Chinese engineers and Punjabi workers to stop the road and port project. A crack down by army further intensified the movement. Army felt need for more cantonments and when Musharraf went to Kholu (a Marri area) to inaugurate a cantonment rockets were fired at him. He paid back by killing elderly and most respected Baluch Leader Nawab Akbar Bugti. This unwise act gave a boost to the movement and united most Baluch on anti government platform. Despite killing many of the well known fighters like Barm Dad Khan Bugti the movement goes on. On top of stoppage of Gawadar port project, the issue of general lack of development of Baluchistan, its gas and other mineral rights has come to the fore front and feeds the nationalist movement.

Now a divided people:
During my recent visits I found the people of Baluchistan divided. Unaware of the IMF conditions and limited fiscal space of the current government they feel that the current government has slowed or stopped road and others projects as a reaction to nationalist forces objection and now they resent it. I felt that bulk of the people were very happy with roads which was expected to pass through their area unconcerned about its end use as feed for the port. They mentioned that even the incomplete road have improved their life a great deal as the journey which use to take 4-5 days is being covered by 14 to19 hours: e.g. a trip from Karachi to Turbat or Panjgoor. The journey from Turbat to Panjgoor which now takes 7 to 8 hours use to take 3 to 4 days on camel in the past. People of Turbat and Mund area are also very happy with the Mirani Dam on Dasht River which Musharraf built. This has thrown 30,000 areas of irrigated land and has improved the ground water level in the entire valley. This is likely to boost agriculture production of the area in a big way. Likewise international quality roads linking Karachi to Quetta has improved the quality of life of people of Wad, Khuzdar, Kalat and Mustung. Reduced travel time and access to major markets improved economic condition of these communities and common man is grateful while their Leaders worry about the long term impacts of these developments.

Suspected foreign involvement:
It is a well established fact that when people fight among themselves others take advantage. Theories of American, Indian, Omani, UAE involvement in the Baluchistan conflict abound. They are supposed to be funding the fighters. Reportedly Indians are using their substantial Consulate net work in Eastern Afghanistan to support Taliban and BLA to weaken Pakistan. This is likely to be true. If we get such a chance we will do the same. However American and Arab involvement seems unlikely due to their preoccupation with Islamic militancy or it may be true that USA may be helping BLA to stop China from using Gawadar Port and increase over all influence in Baluchistan. Individuals from Oman and UAE may be helping also given the close cultural links of Arabs and Baluchs.

However the point to ponder is why we are giving a chance to others to exploit the situation. Why can not we talk to our people and remove their reservation on Mega projects.

Militarily given the Sandemanian security system I do not think BLA can make any difference however the list of casualties and missing persons will keep rising as long as the conflict continues. BLA must have realized this by now and will be willing to negotiate.  

Irani Baluchistan  and Iranian Government:
The question whether Baluch nationalist would like to see Irani Baluchistan be part of the Greater Baluchistan is a very pertinent one. Of course a united Baluchistan would be the dream of every Baluch nationalist. This fact is responsible for Iran’s complete support of Pakistan in crushing Baluch nationalist. This is a very favorable factor for Pakistan. With Iran on their side Pakistan can easily tackle the Indian and others intervention given the military assets and tight control of all major entry and exit point.

Will a free Baluchistan be viable?
Currently Baluchistan is dependent on every thing from Punjab and Sindh; it will be difficult for it to survive alone. I have not seen any document explaining how the free entity will function and what it will comprise off. Popular perception that Baluchistan produces all the Gas produced in Pakistan(which is not true now) and there is huge Gold Silver and Copper deposits in Chagi area is being used as base for its economic viability. However they fail to understand the financial cost of finding Gas, Oil, Gold or other minerals and how it is recouped from future earnings. Nor they seem to understand the operating cost issues and how it reduces the net profit out of whole operation. For instance it is popularly understood that out of Sandeck Copper and Gold field only 2% is paid to Baluchistan Government, while 50% goes to Chinese and 48% to Government of Pakistan. However whether 2% is out of sale proceeds, after financial charges or net profit is not clear.

It is not clear if the free Baluchistan promote tourism or would like to remain aloof. If tourism is adopted this can bring in huge revenue and employment in remote places like Harbui and the Coasts. However if Kalat town the seat of Khan of Kalat, Dera Bugti the seat of Bugti Leaders and Khulu the seat of Marri Leaders is to be taken as an yard stick for judging Baluch nationalist mind set they may opt to remain aloof from the rest of the world and let their people sink into deeper poverty while they thrive.  Kalat, Dera Bugti and Khulu are the most depressing places in all of Baluchistan. There are no hotels, decent restaurants, shopping malls and entertainment centers. In these areas there are no good medical diagnostic centers, private hospitals and good private schools which are basic requirement of modern life and not luxuries. People from these area travel to Quetta, Sukkur and Karachi for simple medical needs. Yet they have dish antennas and they watch what rest of the World has. Pakistani channels fascinate them most and impact the way they think. Now they know what they are missing and are not likely to remain deprived for long.

Significant  role of Overseas Baluch Pakistanis:
In other areas where substantial number of middle class has risen e.g: Khuzdar, Turbat, Pangoor and Noshki, there are decent hotels, restaurants, shopping malls ,entertainment centers, private hospitals and private schools.  In these areas  Overseas Pakistanis play a dominant role in economic life. They have dared to build decent houses, often better than houses of traditional tribal leaders and also own major businesses. This segment of Baluch population consider themselves more Pakistani than Baluchis thanks to their extensive interaction with people from other parts of Pakistan. I believe in the long run this section of Baluch society will lead the rest of the population towards prosperity and they would like to do that in Pakistan and not an independent Baluchistan. Because they have a better chance of doing so in Pakistan than a traditional Sardar dominated independent Baluchistan. Because of their significant investments in hotels and shoping malls they would like to see a quick end of the current conflict so that visitors from other parts of the country to come and occupy their hotel rooms and fill their shopping malls generating much needed jobs.    
 
Disappointment with the democratic government:
With Mr. Zardari – a Baluch as Head of State it was expected that he will do more than just apologize to the people of Baluchistan. He could have taken urgent measure to restore the right of local population in the Gas and Mineral taken out from the province. At least the right as per Act of 1935 could have been given back if not more. All political prisoners could have been released and an account of all missing persons be given. However non of these happened and the benefit of a democratic change was lost. Old short sighted policies have continued. What a missed opportunity! His recent visit to Quetta did not make a mark as other than Rs 3.5 billion package for Queeta city upliftment plan there was noting new. The large sum of Rs 46 billion was continuation of the old package given by previous government.

Recommendations:
Before proceeding with further development all concerns of Baluch must be removed. I recommend that the following steps may be taken:

1. Under a NRO style ordinance all involved in the recent uprising may be pardoned. Full account of 1,100 missing persons must be provided by Government Agencies and Army. Those who are dead may be declared so and their remains handed over their relatives.

2. The issue of marginalization of Baluch by others can be tackled by using the Gulf Countries example. They have allowed huge number of foreign workers on work permit basis with no voting right. Issuance of work permit is contingent upon certification that no local person is available for the job. When a foreign workers takes up job he undertakes to find and prepare a local replacement within two-three years. On an exceptional basis such labor regulation may be introduced in Baluchistan for a period of 10 years. 

3. As a special package 25% of net revenue from Gas and Minerals extracted from Baluchistan may be given to Provincial government.

4. A large number of Cadet Schools and Colleges may be established all over Baluchistan to give a boost to number of Baluchs in the Army. As a martial race they are very suitable for this occupation. Once they a respectable share in Army jobs their sense of deprivation will fade away.

5. Many more Mirani Dam like projects may be established all over the province to boost agriculture production. A dam on Hingol River may be built on priority basis.

6. Instead of trying to build all roads at once, important sections of the roads may be completed linking major towns like Turbat, Panjgoor. Current half finished road from Zero Point near Gawadar to Panjgoor if completed will earn a huge amount of goodwill from the people in the Region. These are major population bases of Baluchistan. 

7. The other priority road for the Makran Region would be road from Mukkala (between Ormara and Pasni) to Hoshab. From Hoshab road goes to Panjgoor. This will reduce travel time to Panjgoor from Karachi a great deal. It will also shorten distance from Karachi to Turbat. The current road from Zero point is a big detour for Turbat or Panjgoor passengers.

8.  Banazir Income Support Fund has been activated in the area and has been very thankfully received. Given the high incidence of drug addiction in the Makran Region, families need to be given extra ordinary help. More than normal funds may be allocated to this Region for next few years.

9. There is no industry in the Makran Region other than some flour mills. A Date processing Unit set up by an Overseas Pakistan remains closed. There is need to revive this and set up more process industry to value add substantial Date production the Area. With added production from Mirani Dam irrigated areas on top of existing Agro forestry production from the extended valley of Turbat, other Agri industry may become viable.

10. In Kalat, Mustung, Bustan and Ziarat Region, fruit processing industry is missing despite substantial fruit production. ZBTL may give soft loans to establish value adding industry to create jobs.   

11. There is a substantial room for internal tourism. Kalat, Surab, Khuzdar and Panjgoor offer Cold climate during summer. People will prefer to go to these places instead of going to Northern Areas, if tourist facilities are developed. Khushab Turbat, and Mand offer green valley scenery while Jawini, Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara are potentially excellent sea resorts. Tourism can bring a large number of much needed jobs to the Region and also remove isolation of its people.

12. Government of Baluchistan can expand its Community Centers for Carpet, Embroidery and Switching existing in small towns. These centers where Ladies make traditional dresses and Carpets can be used to also produce commercial type products in collaboration with big Garment factories in Karachi. They can take bulk orders for switching Shalwar Kameez and embroidery on latest machines. Given the huge wage differential such venture is bond to be profitable and expand job opportunity substantially.